We are big fans of eating local and in-season produce, but even bigger fans of ensuring that every American has convenient and affordable access to fresh produce. Tariffs may create some opportunities for increased domestic production, but they will certainly decrease the availability and affordability of fresh produce for the majority of Americans. Why? Because most produce consumed in the home is purchased in national outlets (Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, etc) which are supplied by logistics operations entirely specialized in moving large volumes of produce year-round. For many working families, one-stop-shopping at a large store is what they need, to accommodate their time budget as much as their cash budget. Until our economy is fundamentally transformed to allow working families more leisure time and more disposable income, we do not want to see anything decrease convenient and affordable access to fresh produce, so we oppose tariffs.
The north-south international produce trade has transformed the availability of fresh produce for most Americans. Just take a quick look at this chart:
That’s international trade. The U.S depends on imports for about 58% of its fruit and 35% of its vegetables – take away international trade and you take away that supply. That is because domestic production cannot replace imports due to the seasonal nature of how fruits and vegetables grow.
And it is not just a matter of not being able to replace the supply with domestic production. Losing international markets will also increase the cost of distributing all produce.
Year-round is key to produce distribution because so much of the cost of distribution is in fixed cold storage and refrigerated trucking. Any time that infrastructure is idle, the cost of any product that moves through the infrastructure goes up. The more the infrastructure is used, the less infrastructure cost charged to any product that moves through the system. Distributors maximize the value of cooling and shipping infrastructure by alternating supply and demand between the northern and southern hemispheres as the seasons change. Remove international trade, and you remove months of demand on existing distribution infrastructure, increasing the price of items that move through the infrastructure and decreasing overall supply.
Tariffs will make imports more expensive and retaliatory tariffs will reduce opportunities for American farmers to export. America imports fruits and vegetables in the winter and exports fruits and vegetables in the summer. Tariffs won’t change the seasons, they will just change the availability of out-of-season products. Now, like we said at the beginning, we are big fans of eating in season, because that is a way to eat local, and we are all for strong local economies. But if the last twenty-five years of working to promote more opportunities for farmers to grow for and sell into local markets has taught FarmLink anything, it is that specialized local supply chains are difficult and expensive to build and operate.
We would love a magic wand with which to create the kind of packing, cooling, and shipping infrastructure that could support local fruit and vegetable production all across the land. We would love to see everyone in America with the leisure hours and disposable income needed to buy directly from farmers and eat fresh in season and eat fresh-frozen and canned produce out of season. But we fully understand the reality: Americans are short of time and money and they want to buy inexpensive produce while purchasing other needed household items.
Tariffs will decrease the availability of produce in national retail outlets and increase the price of what produce is available.
American-grown produce won’t make up the difference because of seasonal growing cycles (sunshine matters, it’s science!). A prolonged trade war could in theory create new opportunities for increased domestic greenhouse production and for farmers outside of California to sell to their local communities - but it would take time to bring that capacity on line, and that production would not replace the volume currently available at large retail stores, certainly not at the price consumers currently pay.
The implications of a trade war on the availability and affordability of fresh produce is mind-bending taken in conjunction with statements about improving the American diet, and distressing when paired with statements about making cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. It is so confusing we thought maybe we should write a blog post to try to explain it - but in the end all we could explain is that it does not make sense. But here is what still does make sense: support the farmers, nutrition assistance programs, and leaders who share your values.
